Harris will continue Biden’s policies’ and Biden is a ‘Trumpist without the Trump’, says Wang Yiwei of Renmin University.
Taiwan and Trade: How China Sees Its Future with the US After the Election.
As the United States edges closer to its 2024 presidential election, one thing is clear from Beijing's perspective—whether a Democrat or Republican controls the White House, the trajectory of US-China relations may not diverge significantly.
For China, deciphering the future relationship with the US remains a challenge, especially when Taiwan and trade remain core issues. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump represent different styles of leadership, but in Beijing’s view, the outcome may be largely the same when it comes to Taiwan and trade.
In recent years, hawkishness on China has become one of the few bipartisan issues in American politics. As China-watchers in the West carefully analyse the US election, many in China are doing the same, trying to anticipate what might change—and what will likely remain the same. Interestingly, Beijing doesn’t see much difference between Harris and Trump regarding their stance on China and Taiwan.
This raises important questions about the future of US-China relations, particularly with Taiwan’s status, trade tensions, and strategic competition remaining key areas of contention.
Harris, Trump, and the Continuity of US-China Policy
Kamala Harris’s campaign, while filled with optimism and promises, has not provided a significant departure from the China policies of the Biden administration. In her speeches, she has largely avoided direct engagement with the Taiwan issue but has emphasised America's need to win the global competition against China.
Harris has little foreign policy experience, but analysts predict that she would largely follow the current administration’s approach. Her economic rhetoric, focused on building the middle class, aligns with the high tariffs on Chinese imports that were a hallmark of both Trump and Biden’s policies.
For Beijing, this continuation is unsurprising. A professor of international studies at Renmin University, Wang Yiwei, has characterised Biden as a “Trumpist without the Trump.” Harris, he argues, is unlikely to stray far from Biden’s course. Under Biden, US-China relations have seen tariffs and tech restrictions, reminiscent of Trump’s trade war. Despite a change in leadership, many in Beijing anticipate more of the same.
On the other side, a Trump return could bring unpredictability but also some familiar elements. Trump, who initiated the trade war with China during his first term, is seen as more business-minded and less concerned with maintaining international alliances, including with Taiwan. This could lead to a reduced emphasis on defending Taiwan in a Trump-led administration, which Beijing might favour.
However, the unpredictability of Trump’s decisions, as well as the hawkish stance of his advisers, would ensure that the Taiwan issue remains a hotbed of tension.
Taiwan: The Core of Sino-US Relations
Taiwan remains a sensitive issue for Beijing and is central to China's foreign policy. Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's newly elected president, represents the pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is loathed by Beijing for its advocacy of Taiwanese independence. The US, while maintaining a policy of "strategic ambiguity," continues to support Taiwan through military aid and arms sales, much to Beijing’s dismay.
In the context of the US election, China is carefully watching how both candidates approach Taiwan. For Beijing, a red line in US-China relations is Washington’s support for what they consider “separatist forces.” The fear is that continued US backing of Taiwan could embolden pro-independence movements.
Harris, like Biden, is expected to maintain a steady but cautious approach toward Taiwan, offering support without direct provocation.
Trump, on the other hand, might pursue a more transactional approach, suggesting that Taiwan pay for US defence—a strategy that would undermine Taiwan’s trust in the US. In Taiwan, Trump’s comments have not been well received, with local headlines painting him as a mobster running a protection racket.
Despite this, some Taiwanese citizens, according to polls, believe that the US would defend Taiwan regardless of who is in power, with US support being hard-baked into laws like the Taiwan Relations Act.
Tim Walz speaks at the campaign rally with Kamala Harris in the lead up to the presidential election.
The Broader Trade Landscape
Trade between the US and China remains a point of contention and will likely continue to be so, no matter who is in the Oval Office. The trade war initiated by Trump has largely been continued under Biden, with tariffs on Chinese goods remaining in place. Harris, if elected, is expected to follow a similar path, focusing on American competitiveness and shoring up domestic industries.
Under Trump 2.0, experts predict that trade tensions could escalate once again. Trump’s policies were marked by aggressive tariffs, and a second term could see renewed economic friction. Beijing, which has already adjusted to years of strained trade relations, sees this as a probable outcome but hopes that Trump’s transactional nature might open avenues for negotiation.
For Harris, the emphasis on economic policy will likely mirror Biden’s focus on rebuilding the middle class and supporting American manufacturing. While her policies may be more organised and predictable, China doesn’t expect her to soften on trade issues.
In fact, many Chinese strategists assume that the overall stance towards China—whether in terms of trade, technology, or military competition—will remain consistent across both administrations.
Climate Change: A Waning Area of Cooperation?
US-China cooperation on climate change, once a rare area of mutual interest, is now on thinner ice. With Trump, there was little effort to engage with China on climate issues. Harris, while likely to renew efforts towards climate diplomacy, will have to navigate a more competitive and distrustful relationship.
Beijing has already started to focus on subnational cooperation, working with state and provincial governments rather than at the national level, as a hedge against potential US policy shifts.
If Trump returns to office, climate diplomacy between the two superpowers could become even more strained. While the Biden administration placed some emphasis on climate cooperation, Trump's return would likely deprioritise it in favour of economic and national security concerns.
No Great Shift on the Horizon
In Beijing’s view, the 2024 US election may not signal a significant change in US-China relations. Whether Harris or Trump emerges victorious, both are expected to prioritise strategic competition and maintain a tough stance on trade and Taiwan. While Harris might offer more predictability, the broad strokes of US policy towards China will remain hawkish.
For China, the future of trade with the US is unlikely to improve substantially, regardless of the outcome in November. Taiwan will continue to be a flashpoint, with neither candidate likely to reduce support for the island, despite differing rhetoric. Ultimately, while personalities in the White House may change, US-China relations, especially concerning Taiwan and trade, are set to remain tense.
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