"India Halts Indus Treaty: What’s Next for Pakistan?"

"India Halts Indus Treaty: What’s Next for Pakistan?"

 India Pauses Indus Waters Treaty: What Next for Pakistan?

In an unprecedented and bold move, India has put the historic Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 on hold, citing Pakistan’s persistent support for cross-border terrorism, most recently highlighted by the Pahalgam attack that claimed 26 lives.

This marks the first time since its inception that the treaty has been paused, sending ripples across the geopolitical and environmental landscape of South Asia.

The Treaty: A Cornerstone of Bilateral Water Sharing

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, has long stood as a symbol of cooperation between the two often-contentious neighbours, India and Pakistan. Signed by then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s General Ayub Khan, the treaty grants Pakistan control over the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—while India retains control over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Despite multiple wars and ongoing political tensions, the IWT has remained intact for over six decades.

India's Justification for Pausing the Treaty

India's decision to pause the treaty comes in the wake of a string of violent attacks allegedly supported by elements within Pakistan. Following the attacks in Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019), there were calls within India to reconsider the IWT, but no concrete action was taken. The recent attack in Pahalgam seems to have been the tipping point.

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s statement was unequivocal: "The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism."

India’s Leverage Under the Treaty

Even without formally abrogating the treaty, India has several powerful levers at its disposal:

1. Creation of Storage: The IWT allows India limited storage on the western rivers. By building infrastructure such as dams and reservoirs, India can regulate the flow of water, potentially affecting Pakistan’s access to it.

2. Withholding Hydrological Data: India is required to share data on water flows with Pakistan. Halting this data-sharing can disrupt Pakistan's water management strategies, particularly during flood seasons.

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4. Hydroelectric Projects: Projects like Kishenganga and Ratle, though allowed under the treaty, have faced objections from Pakistan. India can accelerate these projects, thereby tightening control over river flows.

The Implications for Pakistan

Pakistan is heavily reliant on the Indus River System for its agricultural sector, which supports the livelihood of a significant portion of its population. Any disruption to water flow from India could result in devastating economic, social, and environmental consequences.

Pakistan faces the following challenges:

• Water Scarcity: Reduced flow in the Indus and its tributaries could exacerbate existing water shortages, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan.

• Agricultural Impact: Irrigation systems dependent on predictable river flows could face disruptions, affecting crop yields and food security.

• Flood Management: Lack of timely hydrological data can compromise Pakistan’s ability to manage floods.

Legal and Diplomatic Avenues for Pakistan

Under the treaty, disputes are meant to be resolved through a three-tiered mechanism:

1. Permanent Indus Commission (PIC): The first level involves bilateral discussions through the PIC, composed of commissioners from both countries.

2. Neutral Expert: If PIC fails, the matter is escalated to a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank. This mechanism was used in the Kishenganga and Ratle project disputes, where the decision favoured India.

3. Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA): Finally, unresolved issues can be taken to the PCA in The Hague under Article IX of the treaty. Pakistan had previously pushed for this in lieu of a neutral expert.

Despite these mechanisms, the situation is complicated by India’s reluctance to continue cooperation under current conditions, citing security concerns.

Can India Withdraw from the Treaty Entirely?

The IWT itself does not provide any provision for unilateral withdrawal. Article XII of the treaty clearly states that it can only be terminated through mutual agreement. Additionally, international law, as encapsulated in the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, offers guidelines on treaty termination.

Although India is not a signatory to the Vienna Convention, it has indicated a willingness to adhere to its principles. As such, any attempt to abrogate the treaty unilaterally would face significant legal hurdles and international scrutiny.

Strategic and Geopolitical Repercussions

Pausing the IWT could have wider consequences beyond the India-Pakistan dynamic:

• International Backlash: While India has framed its move as a response to terrorism, it may face criticism from the international community for undermining a landmark water-sharing agreement.

• Regional Instability: Water has always been a contentious issue in South Asia. India’s decision might set a precedent for other upstream countries to reconsider their treaties.

• China’s Role: As a major player with control over rivers flowing into India, China might view this move as justification for asserting its own hydro-hegemony.

Domestic Reception in India

The move has been largely welcomed within India, particularly among nationalist groups who see it as a strong statement against Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism. Critics, however, warn that weaponising water could destabilise the region and impact downstream populations, including in India.

Environmental Concerns

While the focus remains on political and strategic implications, environmentalists warn of potential ecological damage from increased dam construction and reduced downstream flow. Alterations in river flow can disrupt ecosystems, impact fisheries, and degrade water quality.

Pakistan’s Strategic Choices Moving Forward

In the face of this significant diplomatic setback, Pakistan has limited but critical options:

1. Engage Diplomatically: Using back-channel diplomacy to restore dialogue and revive the PIC mechanism.

2. Internationalise the Issue: Bringing the matter before global platforms like the UN and leveraging support from allies.

3. Appeal to the World Bank: Invoking its role as a broker and urging it to mediate the current impasse.

4. Legal Recourse: Though challenging, Pakistan might explore legal redress through the PCA.

The Way Ahead

India’s decision to pause the Indus Waters Treaty is not merely a policy shift; it is a signal of New Delhi’s intent to leverage every available tool in its diplomatic arsenal. While the move has created new pressure points for Pakistan, it also introduces a range of complex legal, environmental, and geopolitical questions.

For Pakistan, the road ahead requires a combination of legal strategy, diplomatic engagement, and internal reforms to better manage its water resources. Both countries must recognise that water, the most vital of resources, should ideally be a point of cooperation rather than conflict.

In the end, the durability of the Indus Waters Treaty will depend not just on treaties and legal instruments, but on the political will of both nations to find a peaceful and sustainable path forward.